In last week's edition I walked through how a tanker getting hit ends up in your gold position. This week another tanker was attacked in Hormuz and oil hit a six-month high. Yet gold still fell to a one-year low.

Brent touched $117.75 a barrel on 30 October, the highest since the end of April and on track for its fourth monthly gain in a row (GV Wire). As of writing, Trump says the war will "end soon", just like it was soon last month and the month before that. He had also said he wouldn't strike Iran before the midterms, so markets are now keeping an eye on what happens after 3 November.

What happened?

Another reason for gold's weakness is the tech sell-off. Intel lost almost 30% on 30 October, and some investors likely sold gold to cover losses elsewhere.

My take

I see more pain in the gold market. Rates are moving higher and higher. Even with faith being lost in the fiat currencies, the world will still transact in them. And around 4% earnings on cash sounds more attractive than a gold investment, when it's risk-adjusted.

However, not everyone sees it that way. UBS still expects a strong rebound next year, because in its view the Fed will have to start cutting again (Kitco). A real ceasefire would also take the oil premium out quickly, and that would take pressure off rates.

Developers are in a tough spot

While margins are still amazing, these will compress with higher production costs and lower gold prices. Still good investments long term, but not the money-making cash cows that the market had priced them as.

Indonesia is trying to steer the nickel price by deciding how much ore gets dug. Congo is doing the same with cobalt. The question is whether you can really set a price that way.

Indonesia's miners ask for double

Indonesia's miners need a yearly permit (the RKAB, basically a quota for how much ore each company may dig). On 28 October the regulator said requests for 2027 already add up to more than 500 million tonnes of ore, and some miners haven't even applied yet. This year's cap is around 250-260 million tonnes, and the regulator itself warned that approving the requests could push prices down (Crux Investor).

And the market is already oversupplied. Nickel hit its 2026 low of $14,885 a tonne on 15 October. The International Nickel Study Group expects a 70,000-tonne surplus in 2027, and Indonesia's own miners' association says the industry needs about $18,000 a tonne to be healthy (same source). Applications close on 15 November, and Jakarta decides in the first quarter of 2027.

Congo's cap hits Glencore

The Democratic Republic of the Congo produces most of the world's cobalt, and since 2025 it has capped how much can leave the country. On 29 October Glencore reported its cobalt output so far this year is down 52%, to 13,700 tonnes. It blames the quotas and is leaving the cobalt dissolved in its processing liquid instead of turning it into a product it can sell (Glencore).

Congo's cobalt regulator said back in August that a further quota cut "may be considered" if the market stays out of balance (Fastmarkets).

Where this could be wrong

Important to note is that miners always ask for more than they get. The 500 million tonnes is an opening ask, and the final quota will likely be a lot lower.

Quotas can work if you have control over the commodity. For now, these countries have it. But history has taught us that nations eventually lose control over prices and production. Once enough diversification has been built up in these commodities, their quotas become meaningless. For now, it will work for them.

Russia expects record cargo through the Arctic this year.

Record traffic in the Arctic

Rosatom, the state company, runs the Northern Sea Route (the Arctic passage along Russia's north coast). On 27 October it forecast a record of more than 7 million tonnes of transit cargo this year, about double 2025 (gCaptain).

The Arctic route keeps Russian oil away from the Baltic and the Black Sea, where Western navies are watching, and gives it a direct line to Asia. With tankers still being hit in Hormuz and Brent near $118, a barrel that reaches China this way is worth even more now.

Rosatom's forecast vs the tracker's

The 7 million tonnes is Rosatom's own number. CHNL expects a bit more than 4.5 million tonnes for the full season. The route is only open from summer into autumn, and Putin's goal of 70-100 million tonnes a year by 2030 is still very far away (gCaptain).

On 28 and 29 October I was in Toronto for my third Red Cloud Fall Mining Showcase. As always, it was worth the trip from the Netherlands. Being welcomed by the awesome Red Cloud team alone makes it worthwhile. The companies are a nice added bonus, of course. These are the ones that stood out.

If a company I met isn't on this list, that doesn't mean it was bad. It could be a number of things, mainly that I had to narrow it down to a smaller list.

New to me:

Nicola Mining

Nicola (TSXV: NIM) owns a mill in Merritt, British Columbia, and says it's the only facility in the province permitted to process gold and silver ore from other companies (Nicola Mining). Most of what goes through it today is partner ore, mainly Blue Lagoon's from Dome Mountain, which in October turned into Blue Lagoon's first 992 ounces of gold (Blue Lagoon).

Nicola's own projects are next in line. It's arranging to truck about 1,300 tonnes of ore from its Dominion gold project to the mill (Nicola Mining). At its Treasure Mountain silver mine it has reopened two old tunnels and intends to restart operations in 2027 (Nicola Mining). It also has the money to do it, with about C$10.2 million in cash and no loans at 30 June, before it put C$5 million into Blue Lagoon (Nicola Mining).

Nicola is in a well-funded, unique position with its mill, the only one of its kind in the area. It almost sounded like more of a milling play than a true mining story.

MAX Power Mining

MAX Power (CSE: MAXX) is drilling for natural hydrogen (hydrogen that forms underground on its own, rather than being made from gas or water) in south-central Saskatchewan. On 26 October it said a new well 30 kilometres from its first four also found natural hydrogen, though it's not yet clear whether that's the same system or a separate one. It has started another well (MAX Power).

MAX Power is a very interesting play. The meeting was mainly about the geology of the project and how hydrogen is actually extracted. If the amounts stored and the flow rates are as good as claimed, this could be a big one. But I'll need confirmation on that, and to have it proven to me that the execution risk is mitigated.

Clinch Resources

Clinch (TSX: CLCH) mines metallurgical coal (the kind used to make steel) at its Lanes Branch mine in West Virginia. It produced its first coal in May and is ramping up (Clinch).

Clinch was the outlier in the bunch. Normally I don't meet coal miners in this space. But as someone from a former coal-mining area in the Netherlands, it piqued my interest. You need met coal to make steel, so I think demand for it will always be strong. Clinch could also be a play on the re-industrialisation of the US, if you believe in that. It's right up my alley, and I'll be following along.

However, the IEA expects global demand for met coal to stay broadly flat in 2026 rather than grow, with India buying more and China and richer countries buying less (IEA). And campaign group Urgewald counts 273 new met coal mines and expansions in the pipeline worldwide (Urgewald).

Mosi Copper

Mosi isn't listed yet, so there's not much public about it. From the meeting: it's exploring copper projects in Zambia, both in the northern copper belt "close" to Congo and in the south of the country, where prospecting hasn't really happened on a large scale. On one of its projects, local miners are already working visible gold outcrops (gold you can see at surface).

The guy running it seems very knowledgeable on geology. I'm looking forward to hearing more about the projects and what they find once it goes public early next year.

Cascadia Minerals

Cascadia (TSXV: CAM) is drilling to grow its Carmacks copper-gold project in the Yukon. On 1 October it reported 75.55 metres at 1.19% copper and 0.97 grams of gold per tonne (Cascadia).

Cascadia has good backers and a (seemingly) good project. Its own corporate presentation lists Agnico Eagle, one of the world's biggest gold miners, with 13.9%, and mining investor Michael Gentile with 7.6% as its two largest holders, as of 1 October. Agnico bought in back in April (Cascadia).

Agnico is also exploring and funding Cascadia's other projects. It can earn up to 80% of the Catch property by spending C$30 million over six years, and it funds early-stage exploration on several more, while Carmacks stays 100% Cascadia's (Cascadia). So the de-risking is happening there as well.

The team knows how to execute and how to sell a project to someone who will try to build it. If you're interested in a takeout story (a company that ends up being bought by a bigger miner), this one caught my attention.

Old friends worth a mention:

Geiger Energy

Geiger (TSXV: BEEP), formerly Baselode Energy, explores for uranium at its Aberdeen project in Nunavut's Thelon Basin. On 5 October it reported a second hole with 45 metres of elevated radioactivity (a sign of uranium) starting about 40 metres down, with lab results due later this year (Geiger).

Geiger is at the mercy of the market with every drilling campaign it does, because each one needs fresh money from investors. Yet the area it operates in could become the next Athabasca Basin, once it fills up with mining companies looking for the next generation of mines.

NorthWest Copper

Regular readers know this one. On 29 October NorthWest (TSXV: NWST) reported another strong hole at Kwanika: 73.9 metres at 1.39% copper equivalent (NorthWest Copper). The updated PEA (the first rough study of whether a mine would make money) is still in the works.

My main concern on NorthWest is the infrastructure, mainly power lines. Kwanika still has to be connected to the BC Hydro grid, and the project sits about 100 kilometres from power (NorthWest Copper). The company is also still reeling from the proxy battle with activist shareholders in 2023 (NorthWest Copper), which set its timeline back for some time.

Skyharbour Resources

Skyharbour (TSXV: SYH) explores for uranium in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin, with Moore Lake as its main project and a joint venture with Denison Mines at Russell Lake. It started drilling at that joint venture in early October (Skyharbour).

Skyharbour has some cash flow coming in, but not enough for now to be self-reliant.

For full disclosure: I may hold positions in some of the companies mentioned. Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice.

That's it for this Maric's weekly.

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Stay safe,

Maric